I have been trying to reposition my blog a bit with different posts on a weekly basis. One of the new areas that I will cover is trends in the industry using economic data.
I was lucky enough to attend today’s meeting held by Vinexpo in New York where it presented its’ 14th IWSR global study of current trends in the international wines & spirits markets. IWSR is a British consultancy that has worked with the Bordeaux based fair for years.
I’ve only gone to the fair in Bordeaux once, in 2007, but I was very impressed with it and its professionalism. I’m hoping to attend later this year. In the meantime, here are some fascinating results from today’s meeting.
I love all these numbers it takes me back to my days as a financial correspondent for Dow Jones.
I am happy to say that the US market is still growing with wine consumption forecast to grow 9.35% in value in the period 2010-2014. Growth is seen in all categories: red, white, rose and sparkling. Dessert wines were not separated out.
The study which shows growth trends over a ten year period 2005-2014 led me to be very optimistic about our business, a feat that is not so easy in this restrained economic period. The study predicts that world wine consumption essentially will have risen by 8.60% over the 10 year term, 3.18% over the 2009-2014 period.
As we know, France, Italy and Spain still account for the lion’s share of world production, with 49.48% of the market. What was surprising though was the growth of Chinese wine production to 115 million cases in 2010, with a forecast of 128 million cases in 2014, an increase of 77% over the 2005 to 2014 period.
The study showed that while Italy is currently the number one consumer of still light wine in the world, the US will take that place by 2012.
Worldwide growth in consumption will be driven by three countries: the US, China and Russia.
Sparkling wine consumption instead was highest in Germany, France and Russia. The three countries accounted for 49.73% of total consumption. The U.S. locked in the number 4 spot here as well.
Another interesting trend was the resurgence of Rose’ which is forecast to increase 7.8% in the 2009-2014 period.
The study also mentioned trends in price points globally. Here too, it seems that all price points listed are expected to grow. The largest growth is expected in the more than $10 category with an increase of 15.37% between 2009-2014. While wines between $5-$10 will grow by 9.25%.
The figures for the U.S. market showed that the largest growth is expected in the more than $10 category with an increase of 18.29% between 2009-2014. While wines between $5-$10 will grow by 17.80%. Sales of both domestic and imported wines are expected to grow in the same period.
Another outstanding figure was the growth of the Argentine market, a 114% increase in terms of exports from 2005-2009.
The study expected a continued upswing in the spirits market as well with vodka leading the charge, followed by rum. The spirits market as a whole is expected to grow 9% in volume and 46% in value in the 2005 -2014 period, the study forecast.
Not too shabby!!